If I'm anyone else in the Chase, the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series playoff, I'm most worried about the 17. They're the ones hitting on all cylinders. Corey Day seems like he's in flow state right now, finally real comfortable with what he's doing in a stock car. If he has a lead going into Homestead, it's going to be really tough for anybody to take it from him without them having some issues.
Day won at Charlotte Motor Speedway on Sunday night, his second straight Chase win. Davey Segal picked him on The Grand National Show; I had Justin Allgaier, who finished fourth.
Mad Max on the backstretch
The last restart, with 10 to go, was like that movie Mad Max, when they're trying to outrun the storm, the truck starts breaking down, they hit the nitrous and it shoots out of the storm. That's exactly what happened. Day got swallowed up on the restart. It was a wrap.
Then he went down into Turn 1, third behind Jesse Love and Allgaier, and I think he held the throttle down until he saw Jesus and high-fived him, then kept it down off Turn 2. I couldn't believe he was able to do that.
It definitely helped that Allgaier's 7 and Love's 2 got side by side, or as Day put it, "they got to side drafting each other," each car's air slowing the other. "I think the 2 got really loose from what I could see up there in front of the 7, and that kind of messed them both up," Day said. "That was just enough for me to get a good run and take my run. That was crucial."
I think it was the 21 up top; he cleared him, so nobody was dragging him back, and he went three wide underneath both of them on the backstretch.
Two weeks of Hendrick dominance
I didn't look at this 17 O'Reilly team and see the same Hendrick Motorsports dominance. Then two weeks in a row, Las Vegas and Charlotte, they've had it. It has looked inevitable. They're here, and you're going to have to deal with them.
Day won the first stage Sunday, got penalized for driving through too many pit boxes, restarted 30th and was seventh by the end of the second stage. They went to the back and went and got it, and now they have confidence as a group. He has made up 85 points in two races and sits seven back. If he's in the mix at Homestead, that's not good for the rest of the field.
How many mulligans does the 7 get?
I'm flabbergasted by the 7, because I feel like they're finding every way to lose this championship. I feel like they've had speed every week, and they keep finding different ways to bleed points.
Allgaier won the second stage and led Laps 164 through 182. In control with 17 to go, he got into the fence in Turn 4, and Love and Day both got by. What are we doing in those situations to put ourselves over the line? It's just out of character.
They did close the gap, from 30 behind Sheldon Creed to 15, fourth in the standings. They're still very much in it. But how many mulligans is the field going to give you before it's too late?
The 00 gets there by execution
Creed leads Love by two, and Creed's 00 is not a dominant team. That's not how they got here. They get here by execution. The points sheet says it: three wins this season, no stage wins.
So they need stage points, top 10 all day long. They can't bank on the David Ortiz walk-off home run; that's a long shot. Don't win and don't get stage points, and you're bleeding points. Creed came back from early wall contact to finish third, but scored 35 points to Day's 69. Now, they're in a good spot, with Talladega coming up, and that's a great equalizer. With these short tracks, I think they'll be okay.
Help for the 2 at Talladega
I really like what Love and that 2 group have going on, and at Talladega there's a lot of Richard Childress Racing influence in this series: a lot of drafting help, a lot of cars probably incentivized one way or another to support the 2 or the 21. The 2 is up the furthest. I would not be surprised by, not team orders, but maybe team instructions: if you're around the 2, protect him and help him get stage points.
Where each one has to max out
If I picked the track where each guy needs to max his day out: Phoenix for Allgaier, Talladega for Creed, Homestead for Day. I expect Carson Kvapil to be really good at Martinsville.
For Phoenix, with Dillon Welch on Love, Chris Wilner on Allgaier and Davey back on Day, I'm going with another JR Motorsports car: give me Kvapil in the No. 1. He's fifth, 40 back, after a cut tire left him 32nd at Charlotte, and needs a good run to stay in the mix until Martinsville.
Phoenix is Saturday, Oct. 17. I'll be watching whether the 17 keeps hitting on all cylinders, and whether the 7 stops bleeding points before it's too late.