Give me Carson Kvapil at Gateway.
This kid has been fast since he broke through for a win. He was fast at Darlington, and I thought he had a chance to win Daytona before that. When we got to picks on The Grand National Show, I wanted the No. 1.
Chris Wilner took Justin Allgaier. Really out on a limb there, Chris. But I get it. He trusts the experience and the No. 7 team’s ability to bounce back after a rough weekend. We both picked JR Motorsports because, to me, they have been the class of the field. You have to go through them.
Chris thinks the Allgaier–Kvapil battle we saw at Darlington is coming with us to Gateway. I would take that. We just disagree about which one to put on the picks card.
Gateway is a driver’s track. The two ends are different enough that you have to change what you are doing as you go around. It reminds me a little of Caraway: heavy braking into 1 and 2, then more of a sweeper at the other end where you have to be patient getting back to the throttle.
That is what I want to watch alongside Kvapil’s speed. You can have pace and still give away the run you need coming off the corner. Here are the three things I will be looking at Saturday night.
The braking into 1 and 2. This end asks a lot of the driver. Watch how they get the car into the corner, then compare that with what they do at the other end. It is not the same job twice a lap.
The patience through 3 and 4. If you get to the gas too early and the car gets tight, you have hurt yourself. That is the trap. You want to get going, but you still have to let the car make the corner.
The run onto the straightaway. This is where you see what the exit cost. Kill your run at either end and you are going to feel it all the way down the straight. Watch the gap as they come off the corner, then watch it again once they get going. That tells you a lot.
Allgaier is an obvious problem for my pick. Sheldon Creed and Sam Mayer are two more. Those Haas Factory Team cars can be fast. If they get it right, keep pit road clean and stay out of trouble, they are contenders. Creed is bringing the Darlington win with him. He has already put a Chase race together.
I have been less convinced that the Toyota group has it together consistently enough from week to week. Dillon gave us the other side of that when we called him. He picked Brandon Jones, felt Darlington could have gone better for that team and liked them heading to Gateway.
Davey Segal is staying with Corey Day after his runner-up finish at Darlington. Day surprised him last weekend, and Davey is going back to him. So we have four different picks, even with Chris and me both looking at JRM.
| Panelist | Gateway pick | The reasoning |
|---|---|---|
| Mamba Smith | Carson Kvapil — No. 1 | Recent speed and the Gateway driving challenge |
| Chris Wilner | Justin Allgaier — No. 7 | Experience and a rebound from the No. 7 team |
| Davey Segal | Corey Day — No. 17 | Staying with him after second at Darlington |
| Dillon Welch | Brandon Jones — No. 20 | A better result than Darlington and confidence at Gateway |
I am sticking with Kvapil. He has the speed I want to see coming into this race. Now I want to watch him put the two ends together.
The Chase entering Gateway: Allgaier leads; Creed is seven points back; Kvapil is third, nineteen back. Those gaps are after Darlington on September 5. See the full standings.
When to watch: The O’Reilly Series Nu Way 225 Powered by Bobcat and Sauced by Blues Hog runs Saturday, September 12, at World Wide Technology Raceway. 7:30 p.m. ET on The CW. Official NASCAR event information.
Follow The Grand National Show for the panel discussion and the O’Reilly schedule for the races ahead.